Timothy Iltz is Co-Portfolio Manager of Aquila Tax-Free Trust of Oregon
Vice President and Municipal Bond Analyst, Kirkpatrick Pettis Capital Management
The Volcker Alliance, a think tank headed by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, recently released its report, Truth and Integrity in State Budgeting: Preventing the Next Fiscal Crisis. The report covers fiscal years 2016 through 2018 and measures all 50 states in five key budgeting areas: budget forecasting, budget maneuvers, legacy costs, reserve funds, and budget transparency. Each state was given a grade between A and D- for each category and the grades reflect each state’s three-year average for the critical budgeting areas. The report ranked Oregon as one of the top states for managing legacy costs, a measure that evaluates how well states are funding promises made to public employees, including pension funding and health care.
Over the past three years, Oregon has earned an A average for its ability to manage post-employment benefit (OPEB) funding and pension liabilities. The Volcker Alliance reports that Oregon has a public employee pension funded ratio of 83% for 2018, placing the state in the top 6 plans in the nation. Oregon also earned an A average for budget maneuvers, which evaluates whether the state used one-time revenues, borrowings, asset sales, and other measures to achieve short-term budgetary balance. Budget forecasting was the only area where Oregon fell short, with an overall grade of C, which was partially due to the fact that the state does not use consensus revenue forecasts. However, Oregon was noted for its use of multi-year revenue forecasts and revenue growth projections.
In managing the Aquila Tax-Free Trust of Oregon, we maintain a close watch on Oregon’s economy, budget and liabilities, and we are pleased with the results of the Volcker Alliance’s assessment of Oregon’s fiscal health.